Someone's blowing the hurricane prediction...
I'm not a weatherman, but I play one on this blog...
When this active hurricane cycle began, meteorologists had said that active cycles last between 10 and 30 years.
Last year, hurricane predictions were dire, but the season wasn't particularly bad. (After 2004 and 2005--it seemed like a breeze, but it was really average.) El Niño was blamed. The forecasters changed their tune, and were saying it was going to last 10-30 more years. The predictions for this year forecast another pounding.
I'm hoping/wondering if the recent active cycle may have just been a short one. And/or maybe global warming will mean fewer hurricanes. In either case, I'm making a bold prediction: this year's hurricane season will be average. I lack firm data, so don't plan your insurance based on this prediction, (and even light seasons can be bad in their way--Andrew was the only named storm in 1992,) but I suspect the doom and gloom may represent more agenda than science. Only time will tell.
When this active hurricane cycle began, meteorologists had said that active cycles last between 10 and 30 years.
Last year, hurricane predictions were dire, but the season wasn't particularly bad. (After 2004 and 2005--it seemed like a breeze, but it was really average.) El Niño was blamed. The forecasters changed their tune, and were saying it was going to last 10-30 more years. The predictions for this year forecast another pounding.
I'm hoping/wondering if the recent active cycle may have just been a short one. And/or maybe global warming will mean fewer hurricanes. In either case, I'm making a bold prediction: this year's hurricane season will be average. I lack firm data, so don't plan your insurance based on this prediction, (and even light seasons can be bad in their way--Andrew was the only named storm in 1992,) but I suspect the doom and gloom may represent more agenda than science. Only time will tell.
posted by John at 5/23/2007 03:14:00 AM
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